There’s only one month left in the regular season, and Saturday will be the last chance for teams to make an impression on the College Football Playoff selection committee before the first of six rankings is revealed Nov. 4.
The SEC continues to lead the way with more than a 95% chance to send at least four teams to the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, followed by the Big Ten, with a 65% chance to have three teams. It gets interesting in the ACC and Big 12, though, where multiple contenders on the bubble are trying to make a case for a second bid as an at-large team.
After nine weeks, there’s still a lot of hope on the bubble.
Below, you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into five groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. A team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now. And a team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The 12-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies, plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week to week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: Texas. Nothing about two-loss Texas looks good right now, including its latest injury report. The Longhorns still have everything in front of them, though, including games that could change the playoff picture entirely. Quarterback Arch Manning suffered a concussion in the overtime win at Mississippi State, so his status is uncertain heading into the Vanderbilt game. Texas has no margin for error, but if it can somehow run the table, its résumé would rank among the best in the country with wins against Vanderbilt, Georgia and Texas A&M. The loss to Florida will be a sticking point for the committee, though it would be comparable to Alabama’s loss to Florida State and can be overcome by multiple wins against CFP Top 25 opponents. The Longhorns have so far sidestepped complete disaster with back-to-back overtime road wins against Kentucky and Mississippi State — teams that are a combined 6-9. Despite the team’s struggles, the Texas defense is No. 10 in the country, holding opponents to 14.63 points per game.
Enigma: Oklahoma. The Sooners have the second-most difficult schedule remaining in the country, which can either impress the committee enough to land a spot as a two-loss team if they win — or knock out OU. If Oklahoma somehow wins back-to-back road games at Tennessee and Alabama, the Sooners would be catching the committee’s attention at the right time. Oklahoma’s biggest problem is its loss to rival Texas because if the Sooners were to run the table and finish 10-2, the selection committee’s protocol includes head-to-head results as one of its tiebreakers. It’s possible both teams could get in, but if the committee had to choose, it would be difficult not to select Texas because of the Oct. 11 win. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, if OU and Texas ran the table, the rivals would both have at least a 95% chance to reach the playoff.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
On the cusp: None
Work to do: Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas
Would be out: LSU
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina
Big Ten
Spotlight: USC. Both of USC’s losses were on the road to respectable opponents in Illinois and Notre Dame, but the Trojans still have another big opportunity for a road win against a ranked opponent Nov. 22 at Oregon. It’s also possible that 6-2 Iowa shows up in the committee’s top 25 at some point. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, if USC ran the table — and independent of other results — the Trojans would have an 82.9% chance to reach the playoff. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games — except for Nov. 22 at Oregon, where the Ducks have a 70.8% chance to win. The Big Ten is top-heavy, with Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon leading the way, but there is still a month for some second-tier teams to make a push.
Enigma: Washington. The Huskies did what USC couldn’t and beat Illinois, though they had home-field advantage, which is significant, considering the travel involved. That’s where they’d have another edge against Oregon on Nov. 29, when the Huskies host the Ducks. Washington is favored to win each of its remaining games — except for the regular-season finale against Oregon, which has a 75.3% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics. Washington doesn’t have any embarrassing losses (vs. Ohio State and at Michigan), so it would at least enter the conversation with a 10-2 record.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: None
Work to do: Iowa, Michigan, USC, Washington
Would be out: Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern
Out: Michigan State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Virginia. There is a 30% chance the ACC championship game now features Virginia and Georgia Tech, according to ESPN Analytics. The Cavaliers have won three overtime games in the past four, including two on the road against Louisville and UNC, and a double-overtime home win against Florida State that no longer looks as impressive as it did that Friday night. Still, UVA has put itself in position to compete for a playoff spot. It has a tricky cross-country trip Saturday to Cal, but won’t face a ranked opponent the rest of the season. If Virginia wins the ACC, it’s a lock for the playoff. If it finishes as a two-loss runner-up, the Sept. 6 loss at NC State and lack of statement wins to compensate for it will be an issue for some committee members. The Cavaliers’ best win would be at Louisville, which should be a CFP Top 25 team, but it didn’t help that Pitt just hammered NC State 53-34.
Enigma: Louisville. The Cardinals are going to be haunted all season by their three-point overtime loss to Virginia, but the 24-21 win at Miami on Oct. 17 was the best possible rebound they could ask for. The rest of Louisville’s schedule isn’t easy — most difficult trip Nov. 22 at SMU — but the Cardinals still have a 20.8% chance to reach the ACC championship game and a 12.5% chance to reach the playoff. Part of that is because ESPN Analytics gives Louisville less than a 50% chance to win at SMU.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Georgia Tech, Miami
On the cusp: Virginia
Work to do: Louisville
Would be out: Cal, Duke, Pitt, SMU, Wake Forest
Out: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Big 12
Spotlight: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are the first team out in this week’s top 12 projection, having dropped out after their Oct. 18 loss at Arizona State. That loss took another small hit in Week 9 after ASU suffered its third defeat of the season. The Red Raiders are still on track, though, to meet BYU in the Big 12 title game, as that’s the most likely matchup (34%), according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech also hosts BYU on Nov. 8 in what will be arguably the Big 12’s biggest game of the regular season. If BYU can stay undefeated — but loses in the Big 12 championship game — the conference would have its best chance at getting two teams in the CFP because the winner would be guaranteed a spot, and one-loss BYU would have an excellent case to join them. If Texas Tech beats BYU and finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up to the Cougars, it would also have a strong case thanks to a regular-season win against the Big 12 champion. It would likely be compared with a two-loss ACC runner-up, though, and that’s where things could get interesting. The Red Raiders’ best wins would be at Utah, at Houston and against BYU. How the conference title games unfold would also play a role in the committee’s decision.
Enigma: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are undefeated in conference play, their lone loss coming in the season opener against Nebraska. They have the third-best chance (34.2%) to reach the Big 12 title game behind BYU and Texas Tech. The committee will learn more about Cincy’s validity as a playoff contender Saturday at Utah, and the Bearcats host BYU on Nov. 22. Cincinnati doesn’t face Texas Tech during the regular season. According to ESPN Analytics, the Bearcats have less than a 50% chance to win three of their next four games. They’re favored to beat only Arizona on Nov. 15, but a win at Utah on Saturday would go a long way in further pushing Cincy into contention.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: BYU
On the cusp: Texas Tech
Work to do: Cincinnati, Houston
Would be out: Arizona, Arizona State, Iowa State, TCU, UCF, Utah
Out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Independent
On the cusp: Notre Dame. The Irish had a bye week after a five-game winning streak, but the slow climb back into playoff contention continues at unranked Boston College on Saturday. They need to run the table — and look like a playoff team — to move into a more secure spot. At No. 12 in this week’s projection, Notre Dame would be excluded from the playoff to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which this week is projected to be Memphis from the American. According to ESPN Analytics, Notre Dame still has the best chance in the country to win out (67.1%).
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. The American still has the best chance among Group of 5 conferences to send its champion to the playoff, but the separation within the league is thin. Memphis earned the edge this week because of its head-to-head win against South Florida on Saturday. With the win over South Florida, the Bulls’ chances of reaching the playoff dropped 18%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Memphis still has to face Tulane and undefeated Navy this month, and ESPN Analytics gives Memphis more than a 66% chance to win each of those games.
Enigma: Navy. The Midshipmen are one of six undefeated teams remaining in the FBS, but they have played the worst schedule in the country at No. 136. Their biggest challenge to date is Saturday at North Texas, which is another strong contender for a playoff spot, with the third-best chance (18%) to reach the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. This month will make or break Navy’s playoff hopes, as the Midshipmen have the 19th-toughest remaining schedule in the country. It starts with back-to-back road trips to North Texas and Notre Dame, followed by a home game against South Florida, and ends with a Thursday trip to Memphis. Last year, Navy also started the season 6-0 but crashed back to reality with a 51-14 loss to Notre Dame.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Boise State, James Madison, Memphis, Navy, North Texas, San Diego State, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 BYU/No. 7 Miami winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Vanderbilt/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
